FDI Snapshot 2025: Momentum, Sector Shifts, and Capital Reallocation Trends

1. The Numbers Behind the Momentum

According to data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) and VnEconomy, by September 2025:

• Registered FDI: USD 28.54 billion (+7.8% year-on-year), showing consistent investor engagement despite global slowdowns.

• Disbursed capital: Estimated at USD 17.3 billion (+4.5% year-on-year), demonstrating improving implementation efficiency.

• New projects: Over 2,000 new licenses were issued, while nearly 900 existing projects expanded their capital base — a sign of long-term investor commitment rather than speculative entry.

While manufacturing still dominates (accounting for roughly 56–60% of total inflows), the share of renewable energy, logistics, semiconductor components, and high-value tech services has grown sharply, accounting for nearly 25% of new commitments — a record high.

2. Where the Capital Is Flowing: Emerging Sectoral Focus

Advanced Manufacturing & Supply Chain Integration

Vietnam continues to benefit from supply chain diversification out of China, with key FDI projects concentrated in electronics, precision machinery, automotive components, and semiconductors. Major commitments are moving into northern provinces like Bac Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Hai Phong, and southern hubs such as Binh Duong and Dong Nai, where industrial clusters and logistics corridors are expanding rapidly.

The next wave of manufacturing FDI is increasingly vertically integrated: investors are developing industrial parks with embedded logistics centers, energy supply, and digital management platforms. This integration reduces operational risks and enhances export reliability — a key consideration under shifting global trade rules.

Green Energy & Storage Ecosystem

Driven by Vietnam’s Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) and carbon-neutral commitments, renewable energy investment — particularly solar, wind, and hybrid storage projects — is experiencing renewed momentum.
Foreign investors from Japan, South Korea, and Europe are adopting blended finance models, pairing private equity with concessional loans from climate funds. This trend not only diversifies funding channels but also improves project bankability and ESG alignment.

Logistics, Cold Chain & E-commerce Infrastructure

With Vietnam’s exports projected to exceed USD 370 billion in 2025, logistics has become a top priority sector. Capital is flowing into multi-modal hubs, port-linked industrial zones, and cold storage facilities supporting food, pharma, and semiconductor supply chains.
These investments directly complement the government’s IFC roadmap, which aims to modernize trade finance, customs digitization, and cross-border payment systems.

Technology, Fintech & Digital Assets

Vietnam’s fast-growing digital economy — projected to exceed USD 45 billion by 2025 (Google/Temasek Report) — is attracting sustained venture and institutional interest.
While early-stage tech deals remain smaller in size, larger funds are exploring regulated opportunities under fintech sandbox programs tied to Decision 114 and the emerging IFC framework. Early entrants in digital payment infrastructure, cross-border remittance, and asset tokenization could benefit from first-mover advantages in regulated digital finance zones.

3. Investment Quality over Quantity: A Structural Shift

2025 marks a turning point where investors prioritize quality, scale, and integration over sheer volume of projects.

• Larger ticket sizes: The average new project now exceeds USD 15 million, compared to USD 8–10 million in the 2020–2022 period.

• Comprehensive due diligence: Investors are emphasizing land-use efficiency, power availability, and offtake agreements — particularly in energy and industrial projects.

• Infrastructure-linked commitments: Many FDI projects are co-locating with logistics hubs and bonded zones, creating closed-loop ecosystems that enhance competitiveness and reduce cost leakage.

This evolution mirrors the shift of Vietnam’s investment climate from “cost arbitrage” to “value-chain positioning”, appealing to institutional and long-term investors seeking stability and depth.

4. Key Implications for Investors

To navigate this new FDI landscape effectively, investors should align strategy with Vietnam’s policy direction and sectoral transformation:

• Align project economics with export-market volatility:
Currency hedging, local-sourcing agreements, and diversified buyer bases are crucial to managing risk amid global demand fluctuations.

• Prioritize supply-chain resilience:
Choose industrial zones with reliable power grids, digital infrastructure, and established logistics corridors to minimize operational disruptions.

• Consider vertical integration or anchor clients:
Building synergy between manufacturing, logistics, and distribution networks can protect returns against global trade fragmentation.

• Stay ahead of regulatory shifts:
Decision 114 and upcoming circulars tied to the IFC program will influence financing, settlement, and visa frameworks — affecting both project feasibility and investor mobility.

5. The 2025–2027 Outlook: Sustainable Growth and Institutional Maturity

Vietnam’s FDI profile is expected to diversify significantly by 2027:

• Manufacturing will remain the backbone but gradually adopt green and smart factory models.

• Renewables and green tech will see accelerated capital inflows, especially from ESG-focused funds.

• Financial services and fintech will integrate into IFC nodes in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, supported by new sandbox regimes.

As the market matures, Vietnam is moving from being a “production base” to becoming a strategic capital destination in Asia — balancing competitiveness, sustainability, and policy innovation.

VCAP Partners’ Perspective

At VCAP Partners, we help investors decode Vietnam’s rapidly evolving FDI dynamics.
Our services include:

• Market and sectoral intelligence on upcoming FDI zones and incentive frameworks,

• Due diligence coordination covering legal, operational, and ESG metrics, and

• Capital structuring advisory for joint ventures and blended finance projects aligned with Vietnam’s IFC roadmap.

For institutional and strategic investors, the 2025–2027 period offers a rare inflection point — where early positioning can yield structural advantages in one of Asia’s fastest-transforming investment environments.